Energy policy is security policy
Europe is in the midst of a fossil-nuclear energy crisis with wild gas prices, a postponed nuclear phase-out – and the long-awaited upswing for the energy transition. Now it's time to expand, and at the speed of light.
21.12.2022 – At the end of 2022, the energy world will be completely different than it was a year ago. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine called into question the structures of Europe's energy supply. Large quantities of gas, oil and hard coal have so far been supplied from Russia to the EU. That is history. The EU decided on sanctions against Russia, which in turn completely stopped gas supplies to Germany in the summer. But there is a long way to go to energy independence.
All of Europe, but especially Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas, was looking for alternative gas suppliers. Meanwhile, energy prices rose to dizzying heights. Europe and Germany are pulling out all the stops to prevent a gas shortage over the winter. Extensive energy-saving measures were just as much a part of this as the nationalization of the energy giant Uniper and several gas storage facilities, a ramp-up of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and the construction of new – oversized – gas terminals, more coal-fired electricity in the short term and, most recently, the electricity and gas price brake. Meanwhile, not only Nordstream 2, but also Nordstream 1 were probably handed over to the seabed.
The end of the natural gas era is coming. (Image: Julia Broich)
A ray of hope in the crisis: The necessary expansion of renewable energy plants has finally been taken more seriously politically. From an unexpected source, renewables were declared to be freedom energies and measures for the energy transition were demanded. Speed is required - but there are still huge problems at every turn.
Supply problems, a shortage of skilled workers and, last but not least, still inadequate regulations are making the green transition more difficult. But one thing has become clear to everyone this year: fossil dependence is a danger at all levels, from the climate to the economy. "Energy policy is security policy. The expansion of renewable energies is a question of national and European security," explained Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck.
What has the traffic light done to bring more renewables to the grid?
The first major political success was the Easter package, which, however, only passed the Bundestag shortly before the summer break. It contained an amendment to the EEG and amendments to other laws. Wind power, solar energy and small hydropower are now considered to be in the overriding public interest, which must be taken into account when weighing up decisions. In addition, the expansion targets for wind and solar were formulated more ambitiously and the area for solar parks was expanded. There are also more possible locations for wind power: In the future, they will be allowed to be closer to radio equipment. But that's not all: with the Wind on Land Act (WaLG), a whole series of new rules will come into force on February 1, 2023, which are intended to alleviate the area problem for wind energy. Also good news for wind power: The Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that the states may not generally ban wind power in forests. The repowering of wind turbines will be facilitated – as well as for PV systems.
Room for improvement in wind power and photovoltaics
In order to achieve the target of 80 percent renewables in the German electricity system in 2030, not all the necessary levers have been set in motion. Quite a few tenders – both solar and wind – were signed this year, i.e. fewer projects applied for a contract than would have been possible. This is also due to rising prices for components, problems in supply chains and increased interest rates. Nevertheless, the coalition has also achieved some real improvements in the framework conditions – for example, with the expansion of the area for wind power and photovoltaics or the tax breaks for small PV systems on buildings.
Despite the changed framework conditions, the trend of recent years is being repeated in the expansion of renewable energies. Far too little is happening in wind power. By autumn, newly installed gross capacity had risen by 15 percent compared to the same period last year: a small increase, but far from enough. By the end of the year, a total of 2.5 gigawatts of new wind turbines could be connected to the grid. If the decommissioned plants are included in the calculation, a net addition of 2 gigawatts is realistic (2021: 1.67 GW). A tripling of the pace of expansion, as formulated by the federal government as a goal, still seems unattainable.
Photovoltaics can show more success, but even here it should actually be faster. In the first nine months, 5.62 gigawatts were installed. By the end of the year, 7.5 gigawatts of new photovoltaic capacity could be on the clock. This would correspond to growth of between 25 and 30 percent compared to the previous year. However, larger quantities are also necessary here, around 20 gigawatts of new PV capacity annually by 2030.
The traffic light government has not yet succeeded in turning the tide for climate protection. Although some accents have been set for more renewables and less bureaucracy, in the current fossil energy crisis, the government is fighting the symptoms with relief packages and is not initiating structural change to overcome fossil dependency.
The dangerous ramp-up of fossil fuels
For the Rhenish mining area in North Rhine-Westphalia, the coal phase-out in 2030 is now a done deal, but in the short term, two power plant units of the energy supplier RWE are to run longer. And two years longer than planned. The federal government and the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia explain that this will secure supply and still save emissions with the earlier coal phase-out. Environmental organizations and scientific institutes doubt this. The short-term ramp-up could even lead to more emissions in the end, as a market-driven phase-out of coal-fired power generation would have taken place earlier than 2038 anyway. In addition, the agreement between politicians and RWE provides for the destruction of the village of Lützerath for lignite mining in the Garzweiler opencast mine. The eviction could take place from January. Thousands want to oppose this.
For the second large lignite mining area in Germany, the Lusatian mining area, politicians and the responsible energy company – LEAG – have not yet reached an agreement for an early coal phase-out. The federal government's promise to bring forward the coal phase-out throughout Germany "ideally to 2030" still applies. The eternal burdens of lignite mining and coal-fired power generation were shown again this summer, especially in Lusatia. After all, there are no plans for new coal-fired power plants in Germany. The situation is different worldwide. The Global Coal Exit List, which includes detailed data on more than 1,000 coal companies and over 2,000 subsidiaries, comes to 476 gigawatts of coal-fired power that is planned worldwide. Chinese companies are leading the way, accounting for 61 percent of expansion plans.
Coal-fired power plant in Jiangsu, China. (Image: Kristoferb / CC BY-SA 4.0)
Oil and gas companies are also continuing to expand. The Global Oil and Gas Exit List currently identifies 512 global companies that intend to bring previously untapped resources of 230 billion barrels of oil equivalents into production over the next one to seven years. This would cause 30 times more greenhouse gas emissions than the EU consumes in a year. Fossil fuel companies are particularly active on the African continent. This year, (mostly foreign) companies spent 5.1 billion US dollars on the exploration of new oil and gas deposits in African countries. This approach is supported by countries around the world – such as Germany. In May, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a correction to the COP26 agreement, according to which states no longer want to invest public money in fossil infrastructure abroad. In Senegal, Germany could support the development of an LNG infrastructure for export.
The high prices for oil, gas and coal associated with the energy crisis are creating a gold-rush atmosphere among fossil fuel companies, which in many countries can sue for damages before private arbitration courts if governments set limits on fossil infrastructures with new laws. Billions of euros and dollars have already been squeezed out of states by referring to the possibility of legal action under the so-called Energy Charter Treaty, such as Vattenfall for the German nuclear phase-out. The compensation to RWE and LEAG for the German coal phase-out could also be due to the Energy Charter Treaty. Most recently, in August, Italy was ordered by a private arbitration court to pay over 250 million euros to the British oil and gas company Rockhopper Explorations. Italy already withdrew from the treaty in 2016, but could still be convicted. This year, Germany, France, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands have also announced their withdrawal. After a reform of the treaty also failed to reach the majority of the member states, it is now finally on the verge of collapse. For climate protection, after many bad news, once again good news.
Nuclear power, no thanks!
The turnaround for the year began with a bang: the European Commission announced at the last moment that it would include nuclear power and natural gas in the new EU taxonomy for sustainable investments. The supposedly green taxonomy sets environmental goals and sustainability criteria for investments that are intended to promote structural change in the EU. Germany had previously campaigned for the inclusion of natural gas, and France for the inclusion of nuclear power. Headwinds from various states as well as from the EU Parliament remained futile. A number of NGOs have since requested an internal legal review of the act and Austria has filed a lawsuit. After all, nuclear power and natural gas have nothing to do with climate protection.
And yet the debate pops up again and again. Could there soon be a renaissance of nuclear power in Europe? France presented new nuclear power plant expansion plans at the beginning of the year. Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland and the Netherlands also consolidated plans for new nuclear power. At the end of 2021, a new reactor was connected to the European grid for the first time since Fukushima. The Finnish reactor Olkiluoto III was 13 years late and costs more than three times as much as planned. There are similar delays and cost explosions for all new nuclear power plants. Hinkley Point in England and Flamanville in France demonstrated this again this year by becoming even more expensive and not finished.
Nuclear power is and remains the most expensive and dangerous form of electricity generation. (Image: Julia Broich)
The Ukraine war once again showed unmistakably how dangerous the so-called civilian use of nuclear power is. Russian troops marched over the contaminated soil of the Chernobyl nuclear ruins right at the beginning of the Ukraine war and, after many attacks, have taken over Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia. The attack violates the UN Charter and international law and represents a turning point in European history. For the first time, a functional nuclear power plant equipped with fuel was attacked. Since the beginning of the war, there has been growing concern about a disaster. Many countries, including Germany, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency called for the nuclear power plant to be declared an exclusion zone. Nuclear energy cannot be relied on in times of crisis.
Germany already had to help the nuclear country France with green electricity in the summer. Defects, problems with cooling and maintenance work ensured that French nuclear power plants did not supply sufficient electricity. In addition to the physical risks, it was discussed more widely for the first time that Europe is highly dependent on Russia not only for gas, but also for the fuel of nuclear power plants. However, it has so far been excluded from trade blockades.
Germany's hard-won nuclear phase-out was also hit by the war. Analyses had once again confirmed that extending the operating life of nuclear power plants would not only be more expensive and uncertain, but would also curb the necessary expansion speed of renewables. After discussions about long-term continued operation, two German nuclear power plants were nevertheless kept as an emergency reserve and the nuclear phase-out was postponed. In spring 2023, it should finally come to an end.
Tomorrow there will be part II of our annual review.
Team energiezukunft - Nicole Allé, Julia Broich, Petra Franke, Manuel Grisard
source : Review of the year 2022 Part I: Energy policy is security policy - energiezukunft
